QE3 Will Have a Great Effect on Gold and Silver Prices
February 3rd, 2012Last week, gold and silver prices were essentially unchanged. Even with the positive economic data being released, both precious metals remained strong. November and December were very similar in reference to the prices consumers paid, according to the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Inflation is a relentless concern for investors, though. The Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers released on a monthly basis demonstrates a zero percent change on “All Items” on a seasonally adjusted basis, but a drop in energy commodities (-1.9 percent) helped to undermine stats. When utilizing annual comparisons between 2010 and 2011, the inflation picture is fairly comprehensive. Compared to only a 1.5 percent increase in 2010, the CPI improved 3 percent in 2011. Since 2007 we haven’t seen this doubling of the inflation rate December to December. There was also an increase in the prices consumers shelled out for food at home which rose 6 percent in 2011 signifying an increase of 1.7 percent from 2010. Of these, the sharpest increment (8.1 percent) can be found within the dairy sector.
The inflation rate is often inconspicuous because of alterations in the Consumer Price Index over the years such as hedonic and substitution adjustments. It really should be about 6.3 percent for 2011 if it would be computed similar to the way it was previous to 1990, according to John Williams of ShadowStats. Compared to 9 percent in 2010, the annual inflation rate was approximately 11 percent in 2011 if we use inflation reporting adjustments from before 1980.
In the previous week, investors acquired $15 billion worth of 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities at a yield of -0.046 percent. It was in 1997 that TIPS last made their appearance at auctions where investors obtained the securities at a negative yield. Richard Schlanger, a portfolio manager at Pioneer Investments USA said, “It’s a safe-haven play. It’s all about the return of capital rather than the return on capital.” And the demand has been great, too. The overall accepted bids for the 10-year TIPS compared to the amount accorded came in at a ratio of almost 3 to 1.
Gennadiy Goldberg, a fixed-income analyst stated, “The reason for TIPS buying as of late has been fear that the Fed’s policies will lead to inflation further down the road.” In an attempt to shelter investors from a loss of purchasing power, the principal or face value of TIPS rise and fall with variances in inflation. However, TIPS are founded upon the current CPI and can distort real inflation. Accordingly, for inflation protection some turn to gold and silver, including central banks, as two years ago, they developed into net purchasers of gold for the first time in 20 years. Different from current fiat currencies, global turmoil has not done away with both precious metals which have survived thousands of years of crisis. Gold prices have climbed from $250 to $1,660 per ounce at the present time because of monetary policies over the past ten years. Simultaneously, silver prices have boosted from $4.50 to over $31, an increase of $26.50 per ounce.
It is the U.S. dollar which will suffer the consequences as gold and silver prices continue their upward momentum. Central banks carry on supplying stimulus measures that devalue fiat currencies while nations persist in their struggle with a global insolvency disaster. A budding consensus of economists anticipates that the Federal Reserve is expected to introduce another $1 trillion worth of easing to fuel the economy. An action of that nature will present another obstacle for the U.S. dollar while, at the same time, have a great effect on gold and silver prices.
